Latest Race Analysis

Getting down to the dregs of the week with the weekend racing, quality certainly dips and does get tougher to find winners:

2.25 Lean Times is a tentative pick in this maiden hurdle. Noel Meade has trained the winner twice in the past 5 years and Lean Times was well backed to win his bumper over 2m3f at Kilbeggan last time out, beating a horse I quite fancied in Glenstar into 2nd. He has appreciate the faster ground recently so should be suited by the going and if he can jump a hurdle then he should go close in what is a poor quality race. Noel Meade hasn’t been in great form this week so stakes would be kept low for this one.

2.55 Manhattan Boy (each way) should go close in this handicap chase. The last two years Eddie O’Grady has saddled a runner in this (2002 & 2005) he has trained the winner, so this is a race he targets when he feels he has a well handicapped chaser on his hands.
Manhattan Boy has gained both his previous successes in handicap chase at right handed tracks on good or firmer ground, most recently landing a 2m4f Limerick handicap chase on good to firm ground off a mark of 112 last time out. He led from 4 out but was headed briefly 2 out but showed good spirit and stamina to stay on to the finish and win by 3 lengths. He looked as if he would certainly appreciate a longer trip and today’s 2m6f should be right up his alley.
Manhattan Boy was runner-up in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival prior to his last win, a fine effort in a competitive race. He has only been raised 4lbs for his latest chase win and on this fast ground he looks capable of improving his trainer’s already fine record in this race.

3.30 Cambina looks the one in this nursery. Tommy Stack has saddled 2 runners in the race in the last 5 years and both have won (06 & 08). Stack has a 21% strike rate in nurseries in the past 5 seasons.
Cambina improved loads for her first outing when unplaced in a 6f maiden to win a 1m Killarney maiden on good ground. The longer trip clearly suited and the step back to 7f is a slight concern. However she is by Hawk Wing, who gained all 3 of his wins as a 2yo over 7f (including the group 1 National Stakes) and out of a Peintre Celebre mare, so she is bred to want about this 7f trip as a 2yo. Tommy Stack’s recent form is a concern, however with his last 2 runners in this both winning Cambina merits serious respect.

4.00 Miss Eze (each way) has already won a handicap over this course and distance at the meeting and is having her third start of the week though looks capable of going close once again.
She got up late on to win a 7f handicap on Monday off 77 and then ran better than the bare form suggests when a staying on 4th of 15 in another 7f handicap here on Wednsday when held up towards the rear and finishing well, the first 3 home all raced prominently so the race was clearly not run to suit and she did well to nearly get 3rd off today’s mark of 84.
Danny Mullins won a Limerick handicap on Miss Eze and rode her last day. His 3lb claim could prove all important and if she gets the breaks I could see her staying on late to grab a place at least.

4.30 is a maiden which has been won by Aidan O’Brien 5 times in the last 10 years and Dermot Weld has won it 3 times in last 10 years. Obviously O’Brien’s Enchanted Forest will be very tough to beat after a good debut but will likely be a very short price so no bet for me in this.

5.00 is a very open looking handicap and Forest Minx (small each way) will be a very tentative selection. She should be a fair price and still looks handicapped to go close.
She ran her best race to date when beaten a short head by Bay Swallow in a 1m4f handicap at Tramore on good to firm off 62 in June. She has been staying on late in two more 1m4f handicaps on her last two starts, very much suggesting she need further.
She could be well suited by this 2 mile trip and Ben Curtis is a handy jockey booking, done well on the horse before. Not a race for a big bet but for a small interest I think Forest Minx could run well.

5.30 Maddoxtown is supposedly fancied to run a big race in this bumper. He’s put in two solid efforts on his 2 starts to date, finishing 4th of 18 and 2nd of 17 in a couple of Killarney bumpers. Eyecatching booking of Katie Walsh is a plus and on form should be thereabouts.
Worth noting that Dermot Weld has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of this, so his runner Masdar, with the quality Robbie McNamara riding, merits respect but will likely be short enough.