Latest Race Analysis

Nice turnaround on day 3 with 4 winners found, finally getting in to my thick skull that Weld horses had to be followed. Hopefully more of the same for Thursday:

1.50 Bronte Bay (each way) may be able to keep up the very good form of the Paul Flynn yard. Flynn has saddled 3 winners and 3 places from his 10 runners in the last 2 weeks.
Bronte Bay has yet to taste success in 13 runs over fences though he has mixed it in good company, having finished 8th of 26 in this year’s Irish Grand National and taking 6th in a listed handicap chase at Uttoxeter in May.
He appeared to have lost his form but looked right back to his best on his latest start when runner-u p in a 2m6f Kilbeggan beginners chase on good ground. He was beaten by Ah Ya Boy, who contests a handicap chase later in the week.
Bronte Bay has to be backed each way as he has had plenty of chances to win already over fences and may just find one too good again today but with the good form of the Flynn yard I expect a big run.

2.25 Armarak (each way) can enhance Eddie O’Grady’s already good record in this race. O’Grady has had 2 winners and 2 places from his last 6 runners in this.
Armarak will relish the top of the ground conditions at Galway, all 4 of his wins under NH rules have come on good or firmer (the last 3 were on firm, g/f, g/f). He won a 2m4f Tipp handicap hurdle on good to firm in October and was sent chasing later that month but he put in two poor efforts on ground far softer than he’d have wanted.
With O’Grady realising the futility of running Armarak on soft ground he was put awayt for the winter and came back out in a handicap hurdle in May, where he finished last though probably needed the run after a lay-off.
His last two efforts have been very good, finishing 2nd to Warcraft in a 2m4f Clonmel novice chase with first two pulling 10 lengths clear of rest and then winning a 2m1f Liumerck beginners chase on good to firm, both times ridden by today’s pilot Andrew MacNamara who gets on well with the horse.
MacNamara rode Armarak to be placed in a handicap hurdle at this meeting last year on soft ground but on more suitably fast ground I expect him to go close in this novice chase. The main concern would be the trip which might be on the sharp side for him but as long as there is a strong early pace then it should not be a problem.

3.00 is a very tricky 20 runner handicap but I would be interested in Peculiar Prince (each way) if he gets in to the race, currently third reserve.
He has run 5 times over this course and distance at the Galway Festival, gaining 1 win and 2 places. He was 4th of 17 off 76 in this race in 2006, 6th of 17 off 78 in 2007 and was 2nd of 17 off 64 under today’s jockey Ben Curtis last year off 64.
He races off 69 today with Curtis taking off 3lbs. He comes into the race on the back of a very good run on his second last start when getting pipped late on in a 1m Bellewstown handicap off 67, beaten into 3rd by less than a length. He was 7th in the big field 1m handicap on Wednesday but he was unlucky to be caught on the rail and never say daylight in the home straight, otherwise he probably would have been placed.
He is 3lbs higher than his last wining mark but Curtis’ claim makes up that difference. He is well suited to fast ground and I would fancy him as an each way bet if he makes it into the race.

3.35 is a very hot fillies handicap with several CD winners, includling the 2008 winner Mirandas Girl, in the field and several coming into the race in top form such as The Silver Crown who won so well last time she’s gone up 22lbs. Tellelle is another CD winner who won on her second start of last season and made a favourable impression first time out this season and looks like she’s been aimed at this.
With the race looking so competitive I won’t be having a big bet but Richard Fahey sends over Jeannie Galloway (small each way), and he has had success on this day of the Festival in the past (Bolodenka 2006) and Michael Hussey also rode a winner for him at the Festival in 2007.
Jeannie Galloway won a 7f Musselburgh handicap off 78 on her second last start and form of that win is working out well with the 2nd getting beat a short head off 3lbs higher next time and the 3rd winning off 1lb higher since. Jeannie Galloway was dropped in trip to 6f last time out when runner-up in an Ayr handicap off 82, but the trip was definitely on the sharp side for her and she was found out for a turn of pace in the closing stages.
She is best suited to fast ground and stepping back up in trip with Mick Hussey riding and off a mark of 83 she looks likely go close from a fair draw in stall 10. Tellelle, Miranda’s Girl and The Silver Crown are all respected.

4.10 St Devote (each way) for Eoin Griffin who is having a good Galway this year should appreciate conditions and go well in this novice hurdle. While he did win a bumper on heavy (when going off 2/5) he is undoubtedly better on faster ground.
He made a nice start to his hurdling career when 3rd in  2m 5f listed hurdle behind Warne on yielding ground in October but disappointed on softer ground on his next two starts. He was put away for the winter and made a successful comeback in a 2m Limerick maiden hurdle on good ground in May, running out an easy 5 length winner from John The Solider, who was a slightly unlucky 2nd next time out.
St Devote had to give weight away on his last outing when 3rd in a 2m Wexford novice hurdle, beaten 5½ lengths by the useful looking Otterstown Girl (to whom he was giving 8lbs) and the finishing 4 lengths behind Cabernet Sauvignon (to whom he was giving 7lbs). Cabernet Sauvignon won easily by 5 lengths next time out and was still going well when falling in the opening race at this year’s Festival. This third was a better effort than it appeared at the time.
The step up to 2m4f on fast ground should suit St Devote and he is receiving weight from many of his rivals today. Paul Townend is riding well and is a big plus to have in the saddle. Expect a big run from St Devote.

4.50 Dirar (each way) has a superb record in handicap hurdles of 4 wins and a place from 5 runs and his latest win in a 2m Listowel handicap hurdle on good ground has worked out well. His 6 wins on turf on flat and over jumps have all come on ground with good in the description and he prepped for this race by winning a 1m5f Ayr handicap on the glat on good to firm
Gordon Elliot has been talking up Dirar’s chances and while he is 10lbs for his last hurdles win but he still looks to be improving. Elliot has booked Barry Geraghty to ride and Geraghty’s lowest weight in the last 12 months has been 10-5. If he is to do the correct weight on Dirar he must get down to 10-4 so it will be telling that Dirar is well fancied if Geraghty makes the extra effort to get down to 10-4.

5.25 is a giving me a headache, looks far too open to be having a bet. The Weld hurdler, Force Of Habit, who won earlier in the week has obviouis claims but I'm not going to be getting involved in this race.

6.05 is the bumper and as we all know having Nina Carberry on your horse is worth more than a few pounds. Her last 4 rides in this race have produced 3 winners and a short head 2nd. She rides Summertime Solo in this.
Summertime Solo (each way) made a promising debut when runner-up in a Cork bumper on yiedling last time out, well beaten by a Willie Mullins runner who could be a very nice horse. Summertime Solo should improve plenty for the outing and with Nina on board warrants an each way bet, hopefully at around 8/1.