The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Monday 28th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina.  

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-9-51, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 4-19-118.

Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past decade and gaining just 4 places from 44 runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-12-51

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-16-118

8 of 13 horses carrying a penalty that were racing from inside the handicap finished in the first 4

Horses rated 151 to 164: 1-3-13

Horses rated 135 to 150: 3-15-77

Horses rated 121 to 134: 6-10-79

8 of 10 winners of the race were officially rated 125 to 138.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days

10 of 10 winners has run either once or twice that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (4 exceptions were having their first course start)

7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase but won the valuable Becher Chase on last run)

Other races

Previous year's winner: 532P572U (0-3-8)

Totown Novice Chase winner: 1 (1-0-1)

3 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 in the Totown Novice Chase at Wetherby

7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in either the Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Aintree/Midlands Grand Nationals or the 4M NH Chase at Cheltenham earlier that year (2 of 3 exceptions fell in one of these races when in contention)

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-7-20) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 5 years and supplying the 2^nd and 4^th last year.

Alan King (1-4-6) also has a very good record in the race having gained a win and 4 places from his 6 runners.

Venetia Williams (1-2-6), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-11) and Henry Daly (1-1-4) have also trained the winner of the race in the past 10 years.

Irish trained runners (1-2-9) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1

6 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting and there has not been a winner big than 16/1 in the time period.

The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of the last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 9

·         Carrying 10-9 or less

·         Officially rated 125 to 137

·         Finished in the first 4 last time out in the past 50 days

·         Had 1 or 2 runs this season

·         Course winner

·         Won over at least 3 miles

·         Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

·         Second season chaser

·         Won or placed in a graded chase

·         Placed in another Grand National or in the NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2009

·         Priced between 7/1 and 16/1

·         Trained by P Nicholls, A King or V Williams